Fact-Checking the Flimsy Case for Trump's Economic War on Cuba

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now arguing that Cuba represents a national security threat because it’s a "failed state," effectively using the humanitarian crisis brought about by the policies he masterminded in order to justify continuing those very policies.

This circular reasoning is just the latest absurdity — largely unquestioned by major media outlets — the Trump administration has presented as an argument for regime change in Cuba.

A host of other reasons can be found in Donald Trump's January 29 executive order threatening tariffs against any country that exports oil to Cuba. The order states that the oil blockade is necessary because Cuba represents a "national emergency" and poses an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the United States. It then backs up these claims with a kitchen-sink assortment of flimsy and ludicrous justifications, to which Rubio has subsequently added.

Here are the Trump administration’s main arguments for waging economic war on Cuba — and why they deserve scrutiny:

By Blake Burdge & Reed Lindsay - July 3 2026