On “Liberation Day,” Donald Trump slapped tariffs on 90 countries. The stock market tanked. Recession fears spiked. Even Trump allies panicked—billionaire investor Bill Ackman warned of a coming “self-induced, economic nuclear winter.” Seven days later, Trump backed off—temporarily.
The tariffs may be on pause, but there is a deeper and more destabilizing threat underway: the economic fallout of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants who keep the country’s food, housing, and health care systems running.
For many, Trump’s deportation agenda may seem separate from his economic plans. Or it may feel irrelevant—if they are not immigrants, or do not know anyone who is. It’s unquestionably true that immigrant communities will endure the worst of the devastation. But make no mistake: mass deportations threaten the stability of the entire economy. If you’re worried about rent, food prices, or health care, this agenda is coming for you too.
Here’s how:
Your grocery bill will go up.
According to the Department of Agriculture, 42% of U.S. farmworkers are undocumented immigrants. These men and women work long days in harsh conditions to harvest the food that we all eat. Without them, crops will rot in fields and prices will spike. One study estimates food costs could rise by 10%. “The only question,” says Moody’s chief economist, “is how high prices will go.”
Farmers agree. As one Michigan grower put it, “There would be nobody to pick the crops. And you’re not going to plant what you can’t harvest and sell. It’s just basic economics.”
Housing will get even more expensive.
It is no secret that the United States has a serious housing problem, with a current shortage of an estimated 3.8 million homes. At the same time, undocumented workers make up about one-sixth of the construction industry—working predominantly in residential building. Mass deportations will mean labor shortages, longer delays, and higher housing costs. Some politicians argue that deporting immigrant workers opens jobs for U.S.-born workers. But the construction industry has faced a significant labor shortage stretching back to the mid-2000s, so the idea that there are 1.6 million U.S.-born workers at the ready to step in simply does not add up.
Congress can’t spend $350 billion without taking it from somewhere.
That’s the estimated cost of Trump’s mass deportation plan. To put this into perspective, just one year of this plan – price tagged at $88 billion – will cost 18 times more than the entire world spends on cancer research annually. To pay for it, Congress is proposing deep cuts to social programs—like $880 billion from Medicaid over ten years. Tens of millions of people, many already struggling to make ends meet, will lose access to care.
On the flip side, in the same budget, Congress also plans to hand out tax cuts to billionaires and the ultra-wealthy. As always, those in power will take care of each other.
Immigrants work hard – and their tax dollars and spending power will go with them.
Undocumented immigrants pay billions in taxes annually. In 2022, they contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare—programs they can’t even access. That same year, they were taxed at a higher rate than 55 mega-corporations, including Tesla and ExxonMobil.
Politicians often lie and say that undocumented immigrants do not pay taxes. This is transparently false. If there were truth to it, Trump would not have just brokered a deal with the IRS to access the previously protected information of millions of taxpaying, undocumented immigrants, a gross government overreach and violation of privacy rights.
Mass deportations would shrink the U.S. economy by up to 6.8%, according to the American Immigration Council.
If all of this sounds particularly grim, which it is, the good news is that there are other, better options – but we need to choose them. Our immigration system hasn’t been meaningfully reformed in over 40 years. At this point, the average undocumented immigrant has lived in the U.S. for 16 years. That’s more than enough time to build a life, 100% rooted in this country. But still, for most undocumented immigrants, there’s no real pathway to legal status, no matter how long they have contributed or how hard they work.
Our system is unnecessarily difficult to navigate, and our rules are outdated. It’s like running a modern business with a typewriter – a waste of everyone’s resources. Instead of commonsense upgrades, we are poised to throw an unprecedented amount of money into locking up longstanding members of our society. And to what end? Children growing up without their parents, shock TV, and raising the bottom line for private prison executives.
Rejecting mass deportation isn’t just about preventing harm. It’s also about choosing a better future. Families can stay together, strengthening our communities. A pathway to citizenship could add $149 billion to the economy each year, as well as creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs. We could send a message to Congress – enough with the campaigning, it’s time to govern and put working people first.
And what does that look like?
Well, instead of funneling more and more money to private prisons to lock up our neighbors, Congress could reinvest those funds into affordable housing and expanding health care coverage. For the price of one year of the mass deportation plans, we could construct 2.9 million new homes or pay for 8.9 million people to attend an in-state public college.
Instead of targeting immigrant taxpayers, Congress could close tax loopholes for the ultra-wealthy, take on corporate monopolies that are fixing the prices of our foods, and crack down on private equity firms that are buying our health care systems.
In exit polls from the 2024 election, the top concern for voters was the economy—especially food and housing costs. Immigration came second. Trump’s deportation plan addresses both—but in ways that will make life harder for everyone.
We can do better. We can choose policies that are strategic, fair, and rooted in dignity—not cruelty and chaos.
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